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Topical issues of logistics
Objective view on the Russian logistics.
March, 30 2010.
Yelin V. A, the Chairman of board of directors of Joint-Stock Company "Smart Logistic Group" (www.slg.ru), Cand.Tech.Sci.
1. What does he consider the biggest problem facing the development of the logistics industry in Russia?
The answer: the Russian logistics in its classical kind has still a work brief experience in the market, in comparison with foreign logistical Gurus - the oldest European companies. Somehow last year I met the owner of one family German logistical company based in the middle of the 18th century! He searched for a suitable warehouse for placing his own centre. Imagine the company with an operational experience of 150 years! Other German company born in 1890" Eune and Nagel "as well with a wide experience in the logistics, not for the first year has been successfully working in Russia. There is no Russian companies with such long history. In connection with it, it is possible to designate the first problem in the logistical industry of Russia - presence of small practical experience actually in logistics, and also in realisation of logistical programs and projects. The second problem for the Russian logistical industry - weak system of financing of logistical projects from outside the Russian state and absence of Grants for development of domestic logistics as a whole. Banks consider that in the given branch there are too much risks which are difficult for predicting for 5-7 years. And just in Russia this term is the period of a recoupment of projects in logistics and warehouse development. The third problem is financially connected with the second, it is underdevelopment of leasing schemes of acquisition of the expensive equipment and the technologies used in modern logistics. The fourth problem is that in crisis for a number of companies it was more "practical" instead of logistical outsourcing to be engaged in " logistical self-financing ". I mean that many of them rushed to create own departments and logistics sections, referring to operated deterioration of logistical operations in crisis. But as a whole, all listed problems of the Russian logistics are possible to be removed! Give only term.
2. To what extent does the development of the industry affect more general investment into the country?
The answer: Logistics in the world and in Russia in particular, extremely depends on investments into the country. And that is why. Today all kinds of human activity to some extent use routine logistical operations, as that transportation of the goods, accessories, raw materials, building materials, warehousing and the account, processing, customs clearing. Now imagine, how it is possible to construct apartment houses, factories, shops, roads, other objects and constructions without use of these services given by logistical providers?! So the answer is obvious - attraction of direct and indirect investments into the country as the locomotive pulls behind itself development of all logistical industry. Thus dependence on investments is actually direct and proportional. Do not forget that investments into the country stimulate demand of the population, i.e. people work in various projects, receive salaries, awards, bonuses, and then spend it on acquisition of apartments, furniture, the goods of daily demand, entertainments, thereby participating in natural circulation of monetary weight from investors to logists. That is stimulating this logistics to growth.
3. Do you consider Russia a destination country or is its primary role in logistics as a transit route?
The answer: I think that Russia has a great potential as terminal point of the appendix of logistical services and as international place of distribution of transit operations, especially between the Southeast: China, South Korea, Japan, on the one hand and the West on the other hand. I will explain on examples.
Let's take final logistics. In Russia, without looking at world financial crisis, there is a capital construction, roads are modernised, new projects, for example, "Silicon Valley in Skolkovo", a high-speed line Moscow - St.-Petersburg, etc. In general, the Russians do not sit on one place and "do not idle"! Without qualitative Russian logistics such scale and difficult projects are hardly possible. According to calculations of experts the market capacity of the Russian logistics pulls on 120-140 bln. dollars USA per year.
Now as for transit prospects. It seems to me that good organisation will give an opportunity to deliver containers from China to Europe for two weeks by railway. Especially, such deliveries are carried out already by the largest private carrier FESCO. I know its heads and personally Sergey Generalov. At such high-speed deliveries of cargoes by railway to Europe, northern and southern shipping routes will be out of competition. Thanks to such companies, the transit role of Russia will only increase. And in case of realisation of the project BAM-2 it will be easier to carry cargoes to Europe.from the North America and Canada.
4. Why is the role of third party logistics providers in Russia so weak? Does the quality of the warehousing discourage major 3PL from moving into the country? What about producers, have the logistics networks put any companies off breaking into the Russia market, or is the potential of access to a large consumer market enough to attract them?
The answer: As already was told earlier, experience in classical logistics, namely work of 3PL operator in Russia, not many domestic logistical companies have mastered . Basically it occurred because of short life cycle of these companies, that is because of their youth. To create and successfully start 3PL operator in our country, it is necessary, at least, three components. First, there should be financial possibilities of private persons, the shareholders knowing this branch and interested persons to enclose the money. Secondly, the universal command of experts with a practical operational experience not less than 5 years in the specialisation should be formed. Thirdly, the market should be ready to consume such difficult, not cheap, complex services in necessary volume. Perhaps, it is even the basic component, allowing to be born 3PL operators in this or that market. In Russia, since 2000th years warehouse of class "A" have been started to build, and their boom was in 2006-2009. They were under construction, mainly, for their use by 3PL operators and the companies with high level and culture of logistical service. Therefore, now, premises of class "A" from individual warehouses as NlK-Himki, the FM-LODZHISTIK-SHEREMETYEVO, AINON Terminal "Solar", SLG - "Terminal Nemchinovka", etc. to whole logoparks "Northern Domodedovo", "Kryokshino", "Pushkino", "Tamilino", " White dacha" in the Moscow region, and projects from "Eurasia Logistik", MLP, Megalogix in Russia more than enough.
5. Is any of this set to change?
The answer: Inherently, I am the optimist. Therefore I look ahead logistical branch of Russia without fear, but realisticly. And what do I see!? The projects which are discussed in the Government of the Russian Federation under V.V.Putin's patronage and our President of the Russian Federation D.A.Medvedev, only confirm my forecasts that all in our logistical branch will be good. Growth of orders for various logistical services, both on behalf of the State companies, and from a private sector will increase. And decrease in the rate of refinancing of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will give the chance to make active processes of financing of the domestic logistical companies under leasing schemes and on design financing. Decrease in the rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation as well will urge on the mortgage, consumer crediting, manufacture of building materials, the consumer goods, cars and sphere of services. There are no bases to worry for the near future of the Russian logistics.
6. To what extent is the logistics industry developing outside of Moscow? Which areas are particularly attractive?
The answer: Let's take only three largest regions of Russia: our Northern capital St.-Petersburg with its Leningrad region, Capital of Siberia - Ekaterinburg with its Sverdlovsk area, and the Third capital of Russia - Kazan. In St.-Petersburg and Leningrad region before crisis 2008-2009 it was constructed warehouse of class "A" and "B+" for development of regional logistics with considerable surplus. In particular: "Utkina Zavod" - 120.000 m. sq., AEI - 80.000 m. sq., Gorigo - 70.000 m. sq., Logopark "Neva" - 140.000 m. sq., Interterminal-preport and Parnassus-40.000 m. sq., "Theorem" - 30.000 m. sq., all - objects of class "A". Therefore, it will be easier for the Northern capital to develop logistical branch at abundance of qualitative warehouse base. But considering that the Ust-meadow port is actively completed, building of a line Moscow-SPb will soon begin, taking into account Concept of the FCS Russian Federation about carrying over of customs registration to places approached to the Frontier of the Russian Federation and taking into account an accomplishment of the city on Neva, for Petersburg's logists all should develop well. The Siberian capital - Ekaterinburg and Sverdlovsk area will have some difficulties, as in crisis Siberia has suffered most from stops of manufactures, personnel and unemployment reduction. Therefore the input on pre-crisis activity in this region will take not less than a year, i.e. to the middle of 2011. In this region "Eurasia Logistik" has built its "Pyshma", the area about 200.000 m. sq., "Chkalovsky" - 35.000 m. sq. and "Oboronsnabsbyt" (class B), - 20.000 m. sq., for this megacity is quite worthy logistical base. By the way, in March, 2010 in "Pyshma" at "Eurasia Logistik" has already been occupied to 90 % of all warehouse areas. In the Third capital of Russia - Kazan, even before crisis, the good logistical base has been created, basically for the account of "Eurasia Logistik" with its "Biek Tau", warehouses of class "A" the area of 160.000 m. sq., as for the account of logopark"Q-Park" - 70.000 m. sq. and " Volga region logistical company" - 15.000 m. sq. class "A". But considering original structure of Kazan retail, its considerable dissociation and the highest autonomy, warehouses of class "A" for this region has been constructed with the big surplus. Though the 27th summer International University game of 2013 can give the second breath to the Kazan logistics.
The warehouse real estate of Russia on horizon of 2012.
November, 19th 2009
Yelin V. A. The Chairman of board of directors of the Joint-Stock Company "Smart Logistic Group"
• What a deficiency of warehouse in 2012 will be if will be in general?
The answer: the question is not simple, especially from the point of view of the forecast. I think that deficiency will arise in Moscow region as before crisis of 2008 the market capacity approximately corresponded to the offer, and even deficiency 3% of warehouses of different categories was observed. Thus in crisis many projects were frozen, and developers in general refused a part of projects. In St.-Petersburg and Leningrad region deficiency will not arise at all, as at the moment of crisis the market of the warehouse real estate was overcrowded approximately by 20-25 %. In the cities - millionaires of the second wave, such as Ekaterinburg, Novosibirsk, Kazan, probably Volgograd and Rostov-on-Don, most likely by 2012 balance of supply and demand will arise. Here there are reserves in the warehouse real estate from such developers, as the Open Company "Eurasia Logistik", RosEvroDevelopment, Giffels, "Ghelamco", Raven Russia, MLP, Espro. And in the towns of the third wave, such as Nizhni Novgorod, Voronezh, Saratov, Krasnodar, Krasnoyarsk, Irkutsk, Khabarovsk, etc. both deficiency, and parity of supply and demand is possible. All these forecasts are possible only if relapse of crisis of a world scale during the described period does not happen.
• How rent rates will change by 2012, under preliminary forecasts ?
The answer: To give forecasts for rent rates in a warehouse segment even more difficult, than to predict demand for the warehouse real estate in 2012. Nevertheless, I will try to answer and this tricky question. Let's start from Moscow region, as it is closer for many logists and for our Joint-Stock Company "Smart Logistic Group", and for majority of the federal logistical operators who have begun activity here . Most likely, in Moscow region as in the most active logistical and financial territory of Russia, the prices for warehouses class "A" will definitively return on pre-crisis level of the beginning 2008. Namely, the base rate under scheme Triple net, for 1 sq. m a year in warehouses of class "A" will return to limits $120-135, operational expenses will be most likely in stable limits $30-40, and the utilities in case of total struggle for power savings can fall to $7-8 basically at the expense of electric component. Total, the general bottom border of the rent rate in the primary market of rent for long-term tenants can make $150-160 without utilities and without VAT, and the top border can make $175-185 for warehouses of class "A". In the secondary market, that is at subtenants the given rate can increase by $15-20 to the bottom and top borders of rent in 1 sq. m per year, that is the subrent range in 2012 can make $165-205 without utilities and VAT. In St.-Petersburg and Leningrad region the prices for rent of warehouses class "A" will differ approximately 15 % from above in Moscow region. In other cities-millionaires in 2012 the price can lag behind approximately by 20 % from Moscow ones. Thus distinctions will concern only base rates of warehouses class "A", utilities will be approximately identical in all regions of Russia for warehouses of the given class.
• How many large warehouse terminals will have been entered in Moscow and the largest regional cities by 2012?
The answer: In Moscow, with its expensive lend in comparison with other regions, hardly anybody will venture to build warehouse terminals. Maybe Moscow Government will make such a project without fast recoupment, but more for "protection" of food safety of the city. The reasons are following. Firstly, interdiction for entrance to Moscow of large-capacity trucks exists not the first year, secondly, logists have understood that Moscow is more convenient for serving from suburb on opposite transport streams during certain day time. Therefore it is possible to tell about building only outside of Moscow round highway not more close 10 km from its external border. So, in Moscow Region and in the warehouse real estate following developers will build. Eurasia Logistik can increase already operating project "Northern Domodedovo" by 300-400 thousand in sq. m and will probably start realisation of the project in the east of Moscow Region. There it is possible to start 200-250 thousand sq. m. Probably, RosEvroDevelopment will increase its logopark in the Southwest in Krekshino by 100-150 thousand in sq. m. Company Giffels will build at least to 150-200 thousand in sq. m, and in the north the company "Ghelamco" to 100-120 thousand in sq.m. I think also "Tomilino" will extend approximately by 100-150 thousand in sq. m. In St.-Petersburg there are enough warehouses till 2013-2014, only if internal warehouses will not be put out of the round highway as it was made in Moscow, within the limits of putting out of Customs Terminals. In the cities of the second and third wave of warehouse building till 2012 already equipped sites will be used. So the developer Eurasia Logistik will master in Ekaterinburg, Novosibirsk, Kazan, Volgograd, Rostov-on-Don warehouses 50-100 thousand in sq. m, other developers, such as Raven Russia, MLP, Espro, Giffels will build more modestly, from 10 to 25 thousand in sq. m in the regional projects.
What economic factors can affect rise of prices for the real estate?
The answer: It is possible to consider as a major factor influencing rise of prices in sector of the warehouse real estate well working Economic. The reasons consist in the following: in our country during reorganisation 1985 -1988, nascences of capitalist relations 1988 - 2001 and further stabilisation of economy from 2002 to the middle 2008 basically growth of cost of warehouse actives was observed. All it occurred basically on the background of well-being increase of our citizens, and at constant deficiency of unsightly warehouse of class "B-", "C" and "D", basically kindly left to us by socialism. The peak of cost 1 sq. m of class "A" was in the middle of 2007. One after another large players in the warehouse real estate have come to Russian market and have started to build warehouses with intensity of growth of mushrooms after a good rain, especially in St.-Petersburg and in Moscow Region. But those happy times have imperceptibly flown by and it is necessary to wait for the new period when crisis will be recollected only in a bad dream, and demand for warehouse complexes of class "A" at least will reach steady parity with the offer from developers of the industrial real estate. So, the short resume, influence factors: economic restoration, labour productivity growth, increase of salaries to pre-crisis level, increase of total demand of Russian citizens on goods and services, availability of commercial and hypothecary credits, inflow of investments to various spheres of Russian economy. In general it is all those factors which tell about absolute recovery of Russian economy and foreign states.
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